Endothelial and inflammatory pathophysiology in dengue shock: New insights from a prospective cohort study in Vietnam.

Dengue shock (DS) is the most severe complication of dengue infection; endothelial hyperpermeability leads to profound plasma leakage, hypovolaemia and extravascular fluid accumulation. At present, the only treatment is supportive with intravenous fluid, but targeted endothelial stabilising therapies and host immune modulators are needed. With the aim of prioritising potential therapeutics, we conducted a prospective observational study of adults (≥16 years) with DS in Vietnam from 2019-2022, comparing the pathophysiology underlying circulatory failure with patients with septic shock (SS), and investigating the association of biomarkers with clinical severity (SOFA score, ICU admission, mortality) and pulmonary vascular leak (daily lung ultrasound for interstitial and pleural fluid). Plasma was collected at enrolment, 48 hours later and hospital discharge. We measured biomarkers of inflammation (IL-6, ferritin), endothelial activation (Ang-1, Ang-2, sTie-2, VCAM-1) and endothelial glycocalyx breakdown (hyaluronan, heparan sulfate, endocan, syndecan-1). We enrolled 135 patients with DS (median age 26, median SOFA score 7, 34 required ICU admission, 5 deaths), together with 37 patients with SS and 25 healthy controls. Within the DS group, IL-6 and ferritin were associated with admission SOFA score (IL-6: ßeta0.70, p<0.001 & ferritin: ßeta0.45, p<0.001), ICU admission (IL-6: OR 2.6, p<0.001 & ferritin: OR 1.55, p<0.001) and mortality (IL-6: OR 4.49, p = 0.005 & ferritin: OR 13.8, p = 0.02); both biomarkers discriminated survivors and non-survivors at 48 hours and all patients who died from DS had pre-mortem ferritin ≥100,000ng/ml. IL-6 most strongly correlated with severity of pulmonary vascular leakage (R = 0.41, p<0.001). Ang-2 correlated with pulmonary vascular leak (R = 0.33, p<0.001) and associated with SOFA score (ß 0.81, p<0.001) and mortality (OR 8.06, p = 0.002). Ang-1 was associated with ICU admission (OR 1.6, p = 0.005) and mortality (OR 3.62, p = 0.006). All 4 glycocalyx biomarkers were positively associated with SOFA score, but only syndecan-1 was associated with ICU admission (OR 2.02, p<0.001) and mortality (OR 6.51, p<0.001). This study highlights the central role of hyperinflammation in determining outcomes from DS; the data suggest that anti-IL-1 and anti-IL-6 immune modulators and Tie2 agonists may be considered as candidates for therapeutic trials in severe dengue.

A modified Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score for dengue: development, evaluation and proposal for use in clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: Dengue is a neglected tropical disease, for which no therapeutic agents have shown clinical efficacy to date. Clinical trials have used strikingly variable clinical endpoints, which hampers reproducibility and comparability of findings. We investigated a delta modified Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (delta mSOFA) score as a uniform composite clinical endpoint for use in clinical trials investigating therapeutics for moderate and severe dengue. METHODS: We developed a modified SOFA score for dengue, measured and evaluated its performance at baseline and 48 h after enrolment in a prospective observational cohort of 124 adults admitted to a tertiary referral hospital in Vietnam with dengue shock. The modified SOFA score included pulse pressure in the cardiovascular component. Binary logistic regression, cox proportional hazard and linear regression models were used to estimate association between mSOFA, delta mSOFA and clinical outcomes. RESULTS: The analysis included 124 adults with dengue shock. 29 (23.4%) patients required ICU admission for organ support or due to persistent haemodynamic instability: 9/124 (7.3%) required mechanical ventilation, 8/124 (6.5%) required vasopressors, 6/124 (4.8%) required haemofiltration and 5/124 (4.0%) patients died. In univariate analyses, higher baseline and delta (48 h) mSOFA score for dengue were associated with admission to ICU, requirement for organ support and mortality, duration of ICU and hospital admission and IV fluid use. CONCLUSIONS: The baseline and delta mSOFA scores for dengue performed well to discriminate patients with dengue shock by clinical outcomes, including duration of ICU and hospital admission, requirement for organ support and death. We plan to use delta mSOFA as the primary endpoint in an upcoming host-directed therapeutic trial and investigate the performance of this score in other phenotypes of severe dengue in adults and children.

An open label randomized controlled trial of tamoxifen combined with amphotericin B and fluconazole for cryptococcal meningitis.

Background: Cryptococcal meningitis has high mortality. Flucytosine is a key treatment but is expensive and rarely available. The anticancer agent tamoxifen has synergistic anti-cryptococcal activity with amphotericin in vitro. It is off-patent, cheap, and widely available. We performed a trial to determine its therapeutic potential. Methods: Open label randomized controlled trial. Participants received standard care - amphotericin combined with fluconazole for the first 2 weeks - or standard care plus tamoxifen 300 mg/day. The primary end point was Early Fungicidal Activity (EFA) - the rate of yeast clearance from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). Trial registration https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03112031. Results: Fifty patients were enrolled (median age 34 years, 35 male). Tamoxifen had no effect on EFA (-0.48log10 colony-forming units/mL/CSF control arm versus -0.49 tamoxifen arm, difference -0.005log10CFU/ml/day, 95% CI: -0.16, 0.15, p=0.95). Tamoxifen caused QTc prolongation. Conclusions: High-dose tamoxifen does not increase the clearance rate of Cryptococcus from CSF. Novel, affordable therapies are needed. Funding: The trial was funded through the Wellcome Trust Asia Programme Vietnam Core Grant 106680 and a Wellcome Trust Intermediate Fellowship to JND grant number WT097147MA.

A randomized open label trial of tamoxifen combined with amphotericin B and fluconazole for cryptococcal meningitis.

Background: Cryptococcal meningitis is a leading cause of death in HIV-infected patients. International treatment guidelines recommend induction therapy with amphotericin B and flucytosine. This antifungal combination is most effective, but unfortunately flucytosine is expensive and unavailable where the burden of disease is greatest. Where unavailable, guidelines recommend treatment with amphotericin and fluconazole, but this is less effective, with mortality rates of 40-50%. Faster rates of clearance of yeast from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) are associated with better outcomes - improving the potency of antifungal therapy is likely to be an effective strategy to improve survival. Tamoxifen, a selective estrogen receptor modulator used to treat breast cancer, has anti-cryptococcal activity, appearing synergistic when combined in vitro with amphotericin, and fungicidal when combined with fluconazole. It is concentrated in the brain and macrophages, off-patent, cheap and widely available. We designed a randomized trial to deliver initial efficacy and safety data for tamoxifen combined with amphotericin and fluconazole. Method: A phase II, open-label, randomized (1:1) controlled trial of tamoxifen (300mg/day) combined with amphotericin (1mg/kg/day) and fluconazole (800mg/day) for the first 2 weeks therapy for HIV infected or uninfected adults with cryptococcal meningitis. The study recruits at Cho Ray Hospital and the Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. The primary end point is Early Fungicidal Activity (EFA-the rate of yeast clearance from CSF), over the first two weeks of treatment. 50 patients will be recruited providing ≈80% and 90% power to detect a difference in the EFA of -0.11 or -0.13 log10CFU/ml/day, respectively. Discussion: The results of the study will inform the decision to proceed to a larger trial powered to mortality. The size of effect detectable has previously been associated with reduced mortality from this devastating disease. Particular side effects of interest include QT prolongation. Trial registration: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT03112031 (11/04/2017).

Households as foci for dengue transmission in highly urban Vietnam.

BACKGROUND: Dengue control programs commonly employ reactive insecticide spraying around houses of reported cases, with the assumption that most dengue virus (DENV) transmission occurs in the home. Focal household transmission has been demonstrated in rural settings, but it is unclear whether this holds true in dense and mobile urban populations. We conducted a prospective study of dengue clustering around households in highly urban Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. METHODS: We enrolled 71 index cases with suspected dengue (subsequently classified as 52 dengue cases and 19 non-dengue controls); each initiated the enrollment of a cluster of 25-35 household members and neighbors who were followed up over 14 days. Incident DENV infections in cluster participants were identified by RT-PCR, NS1-ELISA, and/or DENV-IgM/-IgG seroconversion, and recent infections by DENV-IgM positivity at baseline. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS/CONCLUSIONS: There was no excess risk of DENV infection within dengue case clusters during the two-week follow-up, compared to control clusters, but the prevalence of recent DENV infection at baseline was two-fold higher in case clusters than controls (OR 2.3, 95%CI 1.0-5.1, p = 0.05). Prevalence of DENV infection in Aedes aegypti was similar in case and control houses, and low overall (1%). Our findings are broadly consistent with household clustering of dengue risk, but indicate that any clustering is at a short temporal scale rather than sustained chains of localized transmission. This suggests that reactive perifocal insecticide spraying may have a limited impact in this setting.

Lovastatin for adult patients with dengue: protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Dengue is the most important vector-borne viral infection of man, with approximately 2 billion people living in areas at risk. Infection results in a range of manifestations from asymptomatic infection through to life-threatening shock and haemorrhage. One of the hallmarks of severe dengue is vascular endothelial disruption. There is currently no specific therapy and clinical management is limited to supportive care. Statins are a class of drug initially developed for lipid lowering. There has been considerable recent interest in their effects beyond lipid lowering. These include anti-inflammatory effects at the endothelium. In addition, it is possible that lovastatin may have an anti-viral effect against dengue. Observational data suggest that the use of statins may improve outcomes for such conditions as sepsis and pneumonia. This paper describes the protocol for a randomised controlled trial investigating a short course of lovastatin therapy in adult patients with dengue. METHODS/DESIGN: A randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial will investigate the effects of lovastatin therapy in the treatment of dengue. The trial will be conducted in two phases with an escalation of dose between phases if an interim safety review is satisfactory. This is an exploratory study focusing on safety and there are no data on which to base a sample size calculation. A target sample size of 300 patients in the second phase, enrolled over two dengue seasons, was chosen based on clinical judgement and feasibility considerations. In a previous randomised trial in dengue, about 10% and 30% of patients experienced at least one serious adverse event or adverse event, respectively. With 300 patients, we will have 80% power to detect an increase of 12% (from 10% to 22%) or 16% (from 30% to 46%) in the frequency of adverse events. Furthermore, this sample size ensures some power to explore the efficacy of statins. DISCUSSION: The development of a dengue therapeutic that can attenuate disease would be an enormous advance in global health. The favourable effects of statins on the endothelium, their good safety profile and their low cost make lovastatin an attractive therapeutic candidate. TRIAL REGISTRATION: International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number ISRCTN03147572.